Goonhub
07-28-2013, 12:30 PM
Okay, feedback time.
After extensively studying the splice rates and extrapolating all genome numbers from the initial data given by ISN, I have devised alternative paths of reaching Melon from starting point Cannabis; with the result of a Hybrid Cannabis seed.
One particular alternative path I tried (where no success rates are below 50%):
Cannabis -> Peanut -> Creeper -> Wheat -> Lettuce -> Banana -> Chili -> Melon
However, my in-game fucking around proved that this method is not a lot more effective than the original method I tried ((Cannabis + Wheat) + (Melon + Wheat)), in fact I spent even more time accomplishing the task.
Why is this? I am going to math this down to wheat, where the difference is already obvious.
The splice rate between Cannabis and Wheat is 20%.
The splice rates along the path to Wheat are 60%, 60% and 60%, which gives you a 21.6% chance of the splice to succeed.
This seems like a flat increase, yes? Wrong. As mentioned previously the goal is to achieve a Hybrid Cannabis seed, which means that with each splice what you need is a dominant seed to be yielded. I assume the chance for a seed's species gene to be dominant is 50% - which means at every successful splice we have a 50% chance to get a "good" seed. Assuming we splice with only regressive seeds on the other side, the resulting species will only have a 50% chance to be good if we get a regressive species seed. The calculation of this chance would be pretty complicated, but 25% is a good estimate for it. Adding together the two chances, we get that only 75% of the successful splices will actually yield an acceptable result - therefore the success chance for the intended action is 21.6% * 75% = 16.2%, lower than the super risky super luck based super chance thing. Obviously this all can be mitigated by planting the resulting seed, harvesting the cannabis plant and getting around 5 new seeds with rerolled dominance statistics.
Alternatively, another way to approach it is to head from Melon to Cannabis, where the only thing that matters is that we get an r seed in the last step before Cannabis. In this case, the splicing chance of a Melon seed with a Wheat seed is a flat 10% chance. The chances along the paths are 80%, 70%, 55% and 57.5% - or a path based success rate of 17.7%, a three-quarters increase compared to the original plan - and there are no species dominance stats to worry about all the way until the end, where you have to grow a single plant and harvest it for more seeds if it's dominant.
All in all, currently, I think this is fine as it is, but it requires a different approach - so I guess my original suggestion is mostly moot.
After extensively studying the splice rates and extrapolating all genome numbers from the initial data given by ISN, I have devised alternative paths of reaching Melon from starting point Cannabis; with the result of a Hybrid Cannabis seed.
One particular alternative path I tried (where no success rates are below 50%):
Cannabis -> Peanut -> Creeper -> Wheat -> Lettuce -> Banana -> Chili -> Melon
However, my in-game fucking around proved that this method is not a lot more effective than the original method I tried ((Cannabis + Wheat) + (Melon + Wheat)), in fact I spent even more time accomplishing the task.
Why is this? I am going to math this down to wheat, where the difference is already obvious.
The splice rate between Cannabis and Wheat is 20%.
The splice rates along the path to Wheat are 60%, 60% and 60%, which gives you a 21.6% chance of the splice to succeed.
This seems like a flat increase, yes? Wrong. As mentioned previously the goal is to achieve a Hybrid Cannabis seed, which means that with each splice what you need is a dominant seed to be yielded. I assume the chance for a seed's species gene to be dominant is 50% - which means at every successful splice we have a 50% chance to get a "good" seed. Assuming we splice with only regressive seeds on the other side, the resulting species will only have a 50% chance to be good if we get a regressive species seed. The calculation of this chance would be pretty complicated, but 25% is a good estimate for it. Adding together the two chances, we get that only 75% of the successful splices will actually yield an acceptable result - therefore the success chance for the intended action is 21.6% * 75% = 16.2%, lower than the super risky super luck based super chance thing. Obviously this all can be mitigated by planting the resulting seed, harvesting the cannabis plant and getting around 5 new seeds with rerolled dominance statistics.
Alternatively, another way to approach it is to head from Melon to Cannabis, where the only thing that matters is that we get an r seed in the last step before Cannabis. In this case, the splicing chance of a Melon seed with a Wheat seed is a flat 10% chance. The chances along the paths are 80%, 70%, 55% and 57.5% - or a path based success rate of 17.7%, a three-quarters increase compared to the original plan - and there are no species dominance stats to worry about all the way until the end, where you have to grow a single plant and harvest it for more seeds if it's dominant.
All in all, currently, I think this is fine as it is, but it requires a different approach - so I guess my original suggestion is mostly moot.